Ethiopia’s fragile northern Tigray region is once again on edge as delegations of civil society and religious leaders arrive in Mekelle for “dialogue”, raising painful memories of the events that led to the outbreak of war in November 2020. That conflict, which left more than 600,000 dead and displaced five million, was one of the world’s bloodiest wars in recent years and severely damaged the reputation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, once hailed internationally for winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Although a ceasefire was signed in November 2022 to end the fighting, analysts now warn that Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea may be hurtling towards another war that could destabilise the entire Horn of Africa.
At the heart of the tensions lies the fractured Pretoria peace agreement between Abiy’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Disarmament, resettlement of displaced people, and the withdrawal of foreign troops were never fully carried out. Instead, a bitter power struggle within the TPLF and between Tigray’s interim leadership and Addis Ababa has reignited mistrust. In March, a faction loyal to TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael staged a coup in Mekelle, ousting Abiy’s appointee Getachew Reda, a move seen as a direct challenge to the prime minister’s authority. Tensions have since spiraled, with Amhara militias clashing with Tigrayan forces and new breakaway factions forming, further weakening the fragile peace.
Eritrea, which played a major role in the 2020 war, has emerged as a critical factor in the current crisis. President Isaias Afwerki is reportedly angered by Abiy’s peace with the TPLF and deeply suspicious of Ethiopia’s recent rhetoric about its “existential” need for sea access, which Asmara views as a threat to invade its Red Sea coastline. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia have been building up military forces along the border, while Eritrea is rumored to be quietly backing TPLF factions against Addis Ababa. The risk of miscalculation is high, experts warn, as even a small provocation could ignite full-scale war.
The wider regional implications are serious. Ethiopia is a key power in East Africa, hosting the African Union headquarters and serving as a vital aviation hub. A new conflict could further destabilize neighbouring Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, all of which are already struggling with armed conflicts. Abiy’s controversial port deal with Somaliland has already strained ties with Somalia and angered Eritrea and Egypt, which are both wary of Ethiopia’s growing regional ambitions tied to the Nile dam project.
Despite Abiy’s assurances in parliament that Ethiopia seeks negotiation and cooperation rather than conflict, mistrust between all sides runs deep. Eritrea distrusts Ethiopia’s intentions, the TPLF accuses the government of betrayal, and Amhara militias refuse to withdraw from disputed territories. Meanwhile, 1.6 million displaced Tigrayans remain in limbo, with many attempting dangerous migration routes through Yemen to escape renewed instability.
Analysts stress that another war in Tigray must be avoided at all costs. With Ethiopia facing internal divisions and Eritrea entrenching its militarised stance, the Horn of Africa risks sliding into a catastrophic conflict that could claim countless more lives. As one analyst warned, “Conflict only needs one side to go rogue. Sanity and wisdom must prevail before it is too late.”
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