South Africa’s governing African National Congress (ANC) is facing one of its worst electoral performances as early results from the November 4 municipal elections point to a sharp decline in voter support and a possible loss of control over several major cities.
With 71 per cent of votes counted on Friday, the ANC had secured about 32 per cent of the vote, compared with 25 per cent for the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), according to results from the Electoral Commission of South Africa.
If the figures hold, the ANC will have lost approximately 14 percentage points from its 2021 municipal election performance, when it recorded 46 per cent — already its weakest result since coming to power in 1994.
The decline reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with unemployment, crime, corruption and persistent failures in basic services, including water and electricity.
The ANC, which led South Africa out of apartheid in 1994, has faced mounting pressure since losing its parliamentary majority in the 2024 national election. It was subsequently forced to form a national coalition government with the DA and other political parties.
The latest municipal results suggest that the party’s difficulties are extending beyond national politics into local government, where residents directly experience the consequences of service delivery failures.
The election results are expected to reshape political control across South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities, with several cities likely to require coalition arrangements.
The DA is on course to retain an outright majority in Cape Town, while Johannesburg and Tshwane appear headed for hung councils, where no single party secures enough seats to govern independently.
In Johannesburg, the country’s financial centre, the ANC faces a particularly difficult contest as opposition parties seek to capitalise on dissatisfaction with municipal administration and deteriorating infrastructure.
The outcome in eThekwini, which includes Durban, remains uncertain, with former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party seeking to consolidate its support in KwaZulu-Natal.
The fragmentation of the electorate means smaller parties could play decisive roles in determining which political groupings form municipal governments.
Analysts say the ANC and DA could consider cooperation in some municipalities, reflecting their participation in the national coalition government. However, disagreements over policy and governance could complicate negotiations.
The ANC’s declining support has been accompanied by the growth of opposition parties seeking to attract voters dissatisfied with the country’s traditional political leadership.
The DA has emerged as a major beneficiary in several urban centres, while the MK party and other smaller political formations have challenged the ANC’s influence in its former strongholds.
The municipal elections are therefore being viewed as an important indication of voter sentiment ahead of South Africa’s 2029 national elections.
The ANC has acknowledged shortcomings in local government, particularly concerning municipal administration and the delivery of essential services.
Although the party remains ahead nationally in the partial count, its reduced support could significantly weaken its influence over local budgets, infrastructure projects and municipal decision-making.
Final results are expected on Sunday, after which political parties will face the task of negotiating coalition agreements in municipalities where no outright majority has emerged.
The outcome will test whether the ANC can rebuild public confidence and whether opposition parties can convert their electoral gains into stable local administrations capable of improving service delivery.
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