According to AfDB climate experts, the anticipated weather phenomenon is expected to trigger widespread droughts in some regions and devastating floods in others, threatening food security, infrastructure, water supplies, and economic growth across several African countries. The warning comes as meteorological agencies continue to monitor changing global weather patterns linked to warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific.
Speaking during a climate resilience forum, the AfDB’s climate leadership emphasized that while Africa contributes the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains one of the region’s most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Agriculture, which employs more than half of the continent’s workforce, is expected to be among the sectors hardest hit if rainfall patterns become increasingly unpredictable.
Experts warn that prolonged drought could significantly reduce crop yields, worsen livestock losses, and increase the risk of food shortages across parts of Southern, Eastern, and the Horn of Africa. At the same time, excessive rainfall and flooding could damage roads, bridges, homes, and energy infrastructure in other regions, disrupting trade and increasing humanitarian needs.
The bank estimates that the overall economic impact could range from $10 billion to $20 billion, depending on the intensity and duration of the weather event. Beyond direct physical damage, climate-related disruptions could drive inflation higher through rising food prices, reduce export earnings from agriculture, and strain already limited government budgets as countries respond to emergencies.
The AfDB noted that many African economies are still recovering from recent global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, inflationary pressures, and debt challenges. Another major climate-related disaster could slow economic recovery and undermine efforts to reduce poverty and create jobs.
Climate scientists explain that El Niño is a naturally occurring weather pattern caused by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although the phenomenon originates thousands of kilometers away from Africa, it significantly influences rainfall and temperature patterns across the continent. Strong El Niño events have historically been associated with severe drought in Southern Africa and intense rainfall in parts of East Africa.
Recent climate events have already demonstrated Africa’s growing vulnerability. Countries including Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have experienced alternating periods of devastating drought and destructive flooding over the past few years. These disasters have displaced millions of people, destroyed farmland, damaged infrastructure, and increased food insecurity.
The African Development Bank is urging governments to invest more aggressively in climate adaptation measures rather than relying solely on emergency response. Recommended actions include expanding irrigation systems, strengthening flood defenses, improving weather forecasting capabilities, restoring degraded ecosystems, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and investing in resilient transport and energy infrastructure.
The institution also called for increased international climate financing to help African nations implement adaptation projects. Despite contributing less than four percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa continues to bear a disproportionate share of climate-related losses and receives only a fraction of the global funding needed to build resilience.
Development economists argue that investing in climate adaptation today is significantly less expensive than rebuilding communities after disasters occur. They say proactive measures can protect livelihoods, improve food production, safeguard infrastructure, and strengthen long-term economic stability.
As weather agencies continue monitoring climatic conditions, governments across Africa are being encouraged to activate preparedness plans, educate vulnerable communities, and coordinate regional responses to minimize the potential impact of another major El Niño event.
For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the AfDB’s warning serves as a reminder that climate resilience is no longer only an environmental issue but also an economic imperative. Strengthening preparedness today could help protect billions of dollars in economic activity and millions of livelihoods across the continent.
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