Ethiopia is preparing to officially inaugurate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), one of the world’s largest hydroelectric projects, marking a turning point in Africa’s water and energy politics and challenging a colonial-era treaty that gave Egypt control over the lion’s share of the Nile’s waters. Built on the Blue Nile near the Sudanese border at a cost of about $5 billion, the colossal dam has a reservoir roughly the size of Greater London and is expected to transform Ethiopia’s energy sector while fueling nationalist pride across the country.
For Ethiopians, the GERD is not just a massive infrastructure project, but a symbol of unity and resilience. Construction began in 2011, during which Ethiopians both at home and in the diaspora contributed financially through public appeals and government bonds, making it a project of national ownership. “They do not see it as a pile of concrete in the middle of a river, but as a monument of their achievement,” explained Moses Chrispus Okello, an analyst with the Institute for Security Studies. The dam’s completion has galvanized a deeply divided country, uniting citizens across ethnic and political divides.
The GERD is Africa’s largest hydroelectric plant and aims to supply electricity to millions, with the promise of finally connecting the nearly 60% of Ethiopia’s 135 million citizens who currently lack access. Beyond meeting domestic needs, Ethiopia hopes to establish “energy hegemony” in the region by selling electricity to neighboring countries like Kenya and Djibouti, while exploring transmission networks that could extend across the Red Sea to energy-hungry markets in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia.
However, Ethiopia’s triumph has been met with strong opposition from Egypt, which depends almost entirely on the Nile for survival. With 93% of its land covered by desert, Egypt’s 107 million people live along the river and rely on its waters for agriculture, drinking water, and industry. Egyptian experts warn that the GERD, which can store 64 billion cubic meters of water—far more than Egypt’s average annual share of 55.5 billion cubic meters—could create a severe water deficit and devastate the country’s agriculture. “The Nile is our life. Egyptian civilization was built on the Nile,” said Cairo University geologist Prof Abbas Sharaky, stressing that the dam could cause a “poverty of water” for Egypt.
The dispute has deep geopolitical roots. For decades, Egypt relied on colonial-era treaties from the 1920s, brokered by Britain, which guaranteed it around 80% of Nile waters and granted it virtual veto power over projects upstream. Ethiopia, excluded from those agreements, rejected their legitimacy and pushed forward with the GERD despite fierce diplomatic resistance, threats of war, and lobbying from Egypt to block international financing. In a bold political maneuver, Ethiopia self-financed the project, relying heavily on domestic fundraising campaigns. Analysts describe this as a “political masterstroke” that shifted the balance of power on the Nile and stripped Egypt of its privileged status.
Egypt has tried to adapt by building the world’s largest water treatment plant, drilling thousands of wells, and reducing water-intensive crops such as rice. Still, tensions remain high. Egypt’s Foreign Minister recently called water security a “red line” and described the GERD as an “existential threat.” Yet experts say war is unlikely, as attacking the dam could unleash catastrophic flooding across both Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopian negotiators have stressed they will not revert to the colonial-era arrangement but remain open to dialogue on water release and dam safety.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who attempted to mediate the dispute in 2019, publicly sided with Egypt, even claiming the United States had “stupidly funded” the dam—a claim Ethiopia strongly denied. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who earned a Nobel Peace Prize for his peace deal with Eritrea, rebuffed Trump’s push for a deal, fueling further friction. Still, Ethiopia has maintained its determination to complete the project, seeing it as essential to its developmental future.
The GERD also feeds into Ethiopia’s growing nationalist ambitions beyond electricity. Prime Minister Abiy recently hinted that Ethiopia must regain access to the Red Sea, which it lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1991. His comments that the lack of a port was a “mistake to be corrected” have sparked new regional tensions, with Eritrea dismissing the remarks as “reckless.” Analysts argue that the same nationalist fervor that drove the GERD project could now fuel Ethiopia’s push for maritime access and the development of a naval force.
Critics in Egypt argue that the GERD could also be used as a geopolitical weapon. By controlling the Blue Nile’s waters, Ethiopia holds potential leverage over Sudan, where the Blue and White Nile converge in Khartoum. Some fear that the vast weight of water stored in the dam could trigger geological instability in an earthquake-prone region, though Ethiopian officials have dismissed these concerns as unfounded.
Despite international criticism, Ethiopians remain focused on the dam’s inauguration as a national triumph. For many, the GERD symbolizes Ethiopia’s emergence as a modern power, free from colonial-era constraints, and a nation determined to chart its own future. As Mr. Okello of the Institute for Security Studies put it: “Ethiopia built the dam despite the odds. It now sees itself as a great nation, and there aren’t many great nations that are landlocked.”
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has therefore become much more than an energy project. It is a marker of sovereignty, resilience, and Ethiopia’s growing influence in regional politics. While Egypt continues to fight diplomatically to protect its vital water lifeline, the dam’s inauguration underscores Ethiopia’s victory in a decade-long battle for control of the Nile and signals the beginning of a new era in African geopolitics.
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