The recent removal of Mele Kyari as Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has ignited a fresh wave of political and economic maneuvering across Nigeria’s oil landscape. As the nation’s most strategic industry, contributing approximately 90% of its foreign exchange earnings and over 60% of government revenue, the oil sector remains the bedrock of Nigeria’s economy. Kyari’s exit from the top job at NNPC marks a major shift that will have ripple effects among key power brokers, business magnates, and political figures.
During his tenure, Mele Kyari wielded immense influence within and outside government circles, overseeing the transformation of NNPC from a loss-making, opaque agency to a limited liability company (NNPC Ltd.) under the Petroleum Industry Act. His stewardship attracted praise for increasing transparency and cutting down on fuel subsidy-related corruption, but also faced criticism over persistent fuel scarcity, pipeline vandalism, and opaque oil swap deals. His position made him a kingmaker of sorts, with state governors, traditional rulers, and international oil companies constantly lobbying for contracts and approvals.
With Kyari’s removal, the balance of power is now in flux. Key Nigerian billionaires and business interests stand to gain or lose depending on who replaces him and the policies that follow. Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the promoter of the newly commissioned Dangote Refinery, may benefit from a more refinery-friendly leadership at NNPC, especially if the new CEO prioritizes local refining over petroleum imports. The refinery, expected to refine 650,000 barrels of crude per day, relies on a favorable crude supply agreement with the NNPC.
Gilbert Chagoury, the Lebanese-Nigerian billionaire and construction magnate with deep ties in the political establishment, could also see shifts in influence. The Chagoury Group has been involved in infrastructure linked to the oil sector, and any changes in NNPC’s procurement and contracting policies could either expand or limit their role.
On the other hand, individuals like Amina Aliu, who have benefited from regulatory and supply chain roles under Kyari’s leadership, may now face uncertainty. The loss of a powerful ally in the corridors of oil power could mean limited access to future deals unless they realign quickly with the new leadership dynamics.
President Tinubu’s move comes as Nigeria faces growing pressure to boost oil production, stabilize fuel supply, and attract foreign investment to a struggling economy. The decision is being closely watched by international oil companies such as Shell, Chevron, and TotalEnergies, all of which have substantial stakes in Nigeria’s upstream and downstream operations.
This shake-up also signals Tinubu’s intent to reshape the oil sector to reflect his reform agenda. As he pushes forward with plans to fully remove fuel subsidies, deregulate the downstream sector, and improve crude oil production, his choice of a new NNPC chief will be critical. Stakeholders are eager to see if the new leadership will maintain the reform trajectory or bow to entrenched interests.
With billions of dollars in contracts, national energy security, and regional influence on the line, Kyari’s exit is more than just a personnel change it marks the start of a high-stakes power realignment in Nigeria’s most vital industry.
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