The economic landscape of several African nations faced significant challenges in 2023, with internal issues exacerbated by global complications such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and rising interest rates. Despite these hurdles, projections for 2024 suggest a more positive outlook, with many African countries expected to experience moderate economic recovery. However, the pace of growth will remain cautious, influenced by global geopolitical tensions and economic instability.
According to the June 2024 Global Economic Prospects report by the World Bank, developing economies are forecasted to grow by an average of 4% between 2024 and 2025. This includes African countries, where economic recovery is predicted despite lingering global headwinds. Growth in low-income economies is expected to rise to 5% in 2024, a notable increase from the 3.8% growth seen in 2023.
Yet, the report points out that growth forecasts for some African economies have been downgraded since the start of the year. Three out of the four low-income economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) saw their growth predictions lowered in 2024, indicating that recovery will be slower than initially expected.
Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, is forecasted to see growth driven by a resurgence in domestic demand. However, the overall growth rate for SSA was underwhelming in 2023, registering at less than 3%. The region’s largest economies—Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa—continued to expand at a sluggish pace, curbing overall regional progress. The economic struggles of these nations, especially in terms of inflation, weak currency valuations, and high debt levels, have had ripple effects across the continent.
North African countries, by contrast, are set to benefit from rising oil production, which will accelerate growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Countries like Egypt and Algeria are expected to see improved economic activity, fueled by oil exports and greater investment in their energy sectors. The recovery in these countries highlights the regional disparities across Africa, where some nations are set to thrive while others will continue grappling with persistent fiscal challenges.
One of the key issues holding back many African economies is poor government revenue collection, coupled with rising debt-service costs. Many governments across the continent have struggled to maintain balanced budgets, exacerbated by currency devaluations that have increased the cost of imports and worsened inflationary pressures. These fiscal constraints have limited the capacity of governments to invest in infrastructure, education, and health, which are crucial for long-term growth.
Despite these challenges, the overall economic outlook for Africa in 2024 is more promising than the previous year, according to the World Bank. Many African countries are set to benefit from improved private sector activity, which has been boosted by the gradual recovery of the global economy. Private investment, particularly in technology, agriculture, and infrastructure, is expected to help drive growth in key sectors across the continent.
With these positive trends in mind, here are the top 10 African countries with the highest economic forecasts for mid-2024, based on the World Bank’s latest report:
- Niger – 9.1% growth forecast
- Rwanda – 7.6%
- Senegal – 7.1%
- Ethiopia – 7.0%
- Côte d’Ivoire – 6.4%
- Benin – 6.0%
- Democratic Republic of Congo – 6.0%
- Uganda – 6.0%
- Gambia – 5.5%
- Tanzania – 5.4%
These countries are expected to lead the continent in economic growth, driven by strong domestic demand, investment in infrastructure, and the recovery of key sectors such as agriculture and services. Their resilience in the face of global challenges is a testament to the potential for long-term growth across the continent.
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