At Shona EPZ, a busy garment factory in Nairobi, Kenya, the steady hum of sewing machines has long been a symbol of opportunity and resilience. For thousands of workers, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has meant steady jobs, reliable incomes, and a pathway to economic stability. But with the landmark US-Africa trade deal set to expire, anxiety is spreading across the apparel sector and beyond as the future of one of Africa’s most critical economic lifelines hangs in the balance.
AGOA has been in place for 25 years, granting duty-free access for more than 6,000 African products, including textiles, to the American market. It has been celebrated as the cornerstone of US-Africa trade relations, built on the philosophy of “trade, not aid.” The agreement has powered economic growth, supported industries, and created millions of jobs across the continent. But now, uncertainty over whether the deal will be renewed threatens to undo years of progress, putting entire communities at risk.
For workers like 29-year-old Joan Wambui, who has been employed at Shona EPZ for just six months, the possible expiration of AGOA is terrifying. She sews sportswear destined exclusively for the US market, and her earnings have quickly become the backbone of her family. Supporting her young daughter, two sisters in college, and her mother, Wambui fears what will happen if the trade deal collapses. “If AGOA expires, where shall we go?” she asks, her hands never stopping on the sewing machine. “It’s going to hit me hard. Looking for another job in Kenya is very difficult.” For her, and thousands like her, employment is not just about wages but about dignity, stability, and hope for the future.
Kenya’s textile industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of AGOA, exporting $470 million worth of apparel to the United States in 2024 alone and sustaining more than 66,000 direct jobs, most of them held by women. Factories like Shona EPZ, which employs 700 people, have provided not just work but second chances. Many of the employees were previously jobless or vulnerable, some recovering from life on the streets. With AGOA, they found structure, training, and renewed purpose. The factory does not require prior experience, instead offering training that transforms inexperienced recruits into skilled workers.
But now, production at Shona EPZ is slowing. Buyers are reluctant to place long-term orders amid uncertainty, forcing the factory to cut monthly output from nearly half a million garments to just a third. Director Isaac Maluki warns that without an extension, the factory may have to send workers home and risk shutting down completely. “We are looking at a $10 million investment going down the drain,” he said gravely.
The fear is not limited to Kenya. Across Africa, more than 30 countries rely on AGOA for access to the US market, exporting everything from textiles to agricultural products. The program has been hailed as a success for boosting industrial growth, creating jobs, and fostering closer ties between Africa and the United States. However, uncertainty about US trade policy has cast a long shadow. While Washington has hinted at a possible one-year extension, no firm announcement has been made. African leaders, including Kenyan President William Ruto and South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, have been lobbying for a longer five-year renewal, warning that a sudden lapse would devastate fragile economies.
In the meantime, Kenya has been negotiating a bilateral trade deal with the US, but such agreements take time, and workers cannot afford to wait. The urgency of paying school fees, putting food on the table, and maintaining livelihoods far outpaces the slow pace of diplomacy. Experts argue that African nations should also use this moment to rethink their trade strategies. Trade policy analyst Teniola Tayo emphasizes that reciprocity must be central to future agreements. “African countries really need to figure out what they want from the US and what they can offer, because you need to be offering something in exchange for market access,” she notes. She also highlights the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a key avenue to strengthen intra-African trade, foster resilience, and move away from overdependence on external partners.
For the workers of Shona EPZ and the tens of thousands employed in Kenya’s textile industry, the stakes are deeply personal. The expiration of AGOA would mean more than just statistics it would mean families thrust into poverty, communities losing anchors of stability, and entire sectors facing collapse. As Wambui puts it, her plea is simple but urgent: “We have ideas and the drive to make a difference. We just need support to show our potential.”
The fate of AGOA now rests with policymakers in Washington. But for millions of African workers, from Nairobi to Addis Ababa to Johannesburg, the decision will determine whether factories continue to hum with productivity and hope or fall silent under the weight of lost opportunity. The future of US-Africa trade relations is at a crossroads, and the livelihoods of countless families hang in the balance.
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